Part 3 of the Thinking Basketball stats series dives into the problem with NBA stats and the limitations of the box score historically. Really, what are the best NBA stats? What more can we do to add context beyond per game adjustments?
This video explains advanced NBA stats and discusses the additional context provided by pace-adjustments (per 100 stats), per 36 stats, assist percentage (AST%) and better ways to measure rebounding (TRB%). It also raises some interesting strategic questions about Dean Oliver's Four Factors (turnovers, efficiency, etc.). Additional resources:
538 on Margin of Victory and Win%: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/good-news-warriors-fans-every-cliche-about-the-nba-playoffs-is-true/
Justin Jacobs detailing the Four Factors (observing a 0.91 R^2 modeling team performance with 4 Factors): https://squared2020.com/2017/09/05/introduction-to-olivers-four-factors/
Seth Partnow on offensive rebounding trends: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fancy-stats/wp/2015/08/03/missed-three-pointers-dont-always-lead-to-nba-fast-breaks/
Sloan paper on visual tracking patterns that suggests crashing glass more is beneficial yet players crash conditionally: http://www.sloansportsconference.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/To%20Crash%20or%20Not%20To%20Crash%20A%20quantitative%20look%20at%20the%20relationship%20between%20offensive%20rebounding%20and%20transition%20defense%20in%20the%20NBA.pdf
A college study on crashing the glass more: https://kenpom.com/blog/charting-3point-rebounds/
Support at Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/thinkingbasketball
Podcast: https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/ben-taylor/thinking-basketball-podcast (available on iTunes, Spotify, etc.)
Ben Taylor is the author of Thinking Basketball, a Nylon Calculus contributor, creator of the Backpicks Top 40 series & host of the Thinking Basketball podcast.
Player art by @CrumpledJumper
Music: The Way Forward
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