Advanced stats on the MVP battle between Nikola Jokic, Joel Embiid and Giannis Antetokounmpo

In his latest NBA mailbag, Kevin Pelton explains the metrics he focuses on in the MVP race and breaks down his five-man pick.
#Whatadvanced #statssay #MVPbattle #NikolaJokic
What can expanded NBA stats tell us about this year’s MVP race?

In an unlikely twist, in this year’s dispute between the Milwaukee Bucks’ Giannis Giannis, the Philadelphia 76ers’ Joel Embiid and the Denver Nuggets’ Nikola Jokic, the use of more The unified player value metric came into focus.

Of the many malicious arguments made in this regard, one is sound: people who use advanced statistics don’t necessarily understand how they work.

With that in mind, let’s review how what ESPN’s Zach Lowe calls “VORP and SHNORP” (which inspired Andrew Patton to create a semi-realistic SHNORP stat that shuffles some other stats) works and how they One of the top 3 favorites of MVP.

Throughout the NBA season, I’ll be answering your questions about the latest and most interesting topics in basketball. You can tweet me directly on kpelton, post your question using the hashtag #peltonmailbag, or email me at peltonmailbaggmail.

Main question aside, this week’s mailbag looks at whether the international nature of this year’s MVP race should be the focus of U.S. player development.

“What analytics would you use when choosing an MVP and who would you choose?”

– James

Of course, navigating a sea of ​​acronyms and capital letters (to which I contributed) can be intimidating. The first thing to understand is that there are roughly three ways to measure player value:

Exclusive use of box scoring stats: Player Efficiency Rating (PER); Winning Stocks; Field Additions and Subtracts; My Own Outcome Over Reserve (WARP) metric.

Customized plus-minus system, excluding scoring data, only the player’s team’s performance on or off the court, customized for teammates and opponents (regular custom plus-minus, most advanced versions can be found in NBAshotcharts)

Systems that combine binning and positive and negative data (ESPN’s own Real Plus-Minus and FiveThirtyEight’s RAPTOR fall into this category, as do Estimated Plus-Minus (EPM) and LEBRON metrics)

When considering MVP, we are no longer interested in DARKO forecasts or predictors like DRIP. They use data across multiple seasons to best predict the future, so they can’t isolate a player’s value over a season as we did with MVPs.

Because it is a first-generation player value indicator, those that use only scoring statistics tend to be the best known and most widely used. Full Basque

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